While we can try to project and predict as much as possible, it’s amazing how NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners tend to sneak up on us. Justin Herbert won the honors last year, and we know he wasn’t the first quarterback taken in the draft. Players like Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara have also won the award after being third-round picks. Usually, it’s a combination of ability and opportunity that helps players win Rookie of the Year. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the preseason favorites to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2021.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
There’s no doubt that Lawrence will be the starter in Week 1, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities, which is why he’s the top betting favorite. Jacksonville’s supporting cast is also better than most people realize, especially with his college teammate Travis Etienne joining him.
But Urban Meyer as an NFL coach adds some mystery to Lawrence’s season, which is why he’s far from a slam-dunk to win Rookie of the Year.
Najee Harris, Steelers
There should be no question that Harris has the size and physicality to be a workhorse running back in the NFL right away. He should get plenty of carries in Pittsburgh, especially if the Steelers lean more on the running game with Ben Roethlisberger getting older.
If he can stay healthy and everything comes together, Harris will put up the kind of numbers that will make him a serious Rookie of the Year contender.
Trey Lance, 49ers
Lance looks a lot more ready to play as a rookie than most people expected when he was drafted. The early returns from the preseason also indicate that he could be something special.
While it’s too soon to say for sure with Lance still a little bit of a long shot, it’s looking a lot more realistic that he could be Rookie of the Year than he was on draft day.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons
Think about all of the catches that won’t be going to Julio Jones in Atlanta this year. A lot of Matt Ryan’s throws could end up being directed toward Pitts instead, so he’ll have the opportunity to play and have balls thrown his way.
Also, remember that Pitts isn’t an ordinary tight end. He can line up outside the numbers in addition to being a potential nightmare in the red zone. That makes him a rookie to watch closely this season.
Zach Wilson, Jets
Much like Lawrence, there’s no doubt that Wilson will be the starter in Week 1. He’ll have every opportunity to show what he can do and take the Jets to another level. The question is whether he’s ready after facing such lackluster competition in college last year.
One should also question whether the Jets have the supporting cast around him to help Wilson succeed.
Javonte Williams, Broncos
For a player not taken in the first round who can win Rookie of the Year, consider Williams. At worst, he’ll split carries with Melvin Gordon this season, and regardless of who plays quarterback for the Broncos, Denver’s offense will want to run the ball as much as possible.
Williams will get the carries he needs to become a Rookie of the Year candidate, and if you’ve seen him, you know that he has the talent as well.