5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Even in a down year, Rodgers is easily a top-10 fantasy quarterback, so he’s among the safest picks at his position. Even if there are some growing pains in Matt LaFleur’s offense, Rodgers will be happier now that Mike McCarthy is gone. Also, no matter the offense, he has pinpoint accuracy, which leads to consistent point totals.
The X-factor with Rodgers is his receiving corps. Beyond Davante Adams, there are some questions about who will be catching passes and making players. But quarterbacks like Rodgers always make their receivers better, so a no-name group of receivers won’t stop him from being a top-10 fantasy quarterback, at minimum.
Top Target: Davante Adams
Secondary Target: Geronimo Allison
4. Matt Ryan, Falcons
It’s amazing how little credit Ryan got for having such an amazing season last year. His team may have faltered, but he had nothing to do with Ryan, who could have a serious MVP candidate if Atlanta had won a few more games. It’ll be tough replicating those numbers, but not impossible.
Ryan has largely the same supporting cast around him. Julio Jones is still a big-time playmaker and Mohamed Sanu remains a nice complementary target. The X-factor is Calvin Ridley, who was made some amazing plays last year but struggled with consistency. If he takes another step forward this year, Ryan will have a great trio of receivers around him to help make him a top-5 fantasy quarterback.
Top Target: Julio Jones
Secondary Target: Calvin Ridley
3. Andrew Luck, Colts
Luck is back in a big way, showing no ill effects of the shoulder problems that caused him to miss the entire 2017 season. He still has one of the best offensive lines in football in front of him, giving him plenty of time to pick apart defenses and rack up fantasy points week after week.
As always, TY Hilton will be his primary target, but the addition of Devin Funchess could help boost Luck’s productivity. Funchess is a big target who could be key in the red zone. Even after tossing 39 touchdown passes last year, that total could improve in 2019, allowing Luck to make a push for the top fantasy quarterback in the league.
Top Target: TY Hilton
Secondary Target: Devin Funchess
2. Deshaun Watson, Texans
Watson was close to being a top-5 fantasy quarterback last season. Keep in mind that happened despite getting sacked 62 times and only having Will Fuller for half the season. Watson was also coming back from the torn ACL that ended his rookie season early.
In what will be just his second full NFL season, the sky is the limit for Watson. He’ll have both Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, as well as another promising receiver in Keke Coutee. Watson is also a threat with his legs, especially if the Houston offensive line is better and he’s running for pleasure rather than running to save himself. All things considered, he might have the highest fantasy upside of any quarterback.
Top Target: DeAndre Hopkins
Secondary Target: Will Fuller
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
First of all, don’t expect Mahomes to match the 50 touchdown passes and over 5,000 passing yards he had last season. The league has spent all summer looking for ways to slow him down. That being said, there was such a big gap between him and every other quarterback last season that he will surely be the first quarterback selected in nearly every fantasy draft.
However, that doesn’t mean he’s worth taking before you would usually select a quarterback. The gap between him and the rest of the league won’t be quite as big. Obviously, you should draft Mahomes if you can, but keep in mind that there are plenty of quarterbacks with nearly as much potential that can be drafted a round or two after he comes off the board.
Top Target: Tyreek Hill
Secondary Target: Sammy Watkins