Indianapolis Colts — Eric Ebron
Eric Ebron would be the captain of a hypothetical “regression to the mean,” in terms touchdown catches from last season. Ebron’s 13 last season, which were two more than he had in the four seasons before it combined, ranks among my top examples I expect to do so.
Ebron was targeted a whopping 18 times in the end zone, and his 10 scores on those mark one of only four examples this century of tight ends catching 10 such passes in a single campaign — the previous three tight ends to do so regressed, on average, by seven scores the subsequent year. Plus, it’s not like he’s going to have the luxury of Andrew Luck throwing him the ball anymore.