Mitchell Trubisky, Bears – #2 in 2017
Labeling Trubisky a bust after a bad rookie season is completely unfair. He had no help around him, and since he didn’t have that many starts in college, his learning curve as a little steep compared to other young quarterbacks. With a quarterback guru in Matt Nagy now coaching the Bears and better receivers around him, Trubisky will be interesting to watch. That doesn’t guarantee success, but he deserves more time before we rush to judgment.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – #10 in 2017
We don’t know much about Mahomes just yet, but Andy Reid believes in him, and that says a lot. There’s no doubt the arm talent is there, but you can say that about almost every other quarterback on this list, so only time will tell.
Conclusion
If we hold off judgment on the quarterbacks taken over the past three or four years, just under 50% of quarterback taken in the top-10 since 2000 have come anywhere close to living up to expectations, and that’s if we give quarterbacks like Vick, Smith, and Bradford the benefit of the doubt. To be fair, the younger crop of quarterbacks that have entered the league in the last couple of years could sway that percentage significantly. However, if you want to draft a quarterback in the top-10, it’s 50-50 at best to work out.