When it comes to the NBA Draft, and projecting what a player was versus previously versus what a player could be in the future, at the risk of using even more sports cliches, it really is all about beauty being in the eye of the beholder, and the process being much more of an art than a science.
For every “generational, can’t-miss” prospect that enters the NBA and changes the league’s landscape, there are countless players whom we all thought would be future superstars… only to watch their careers fall disappointingly flat.
In this list, we highlight 25 of those players who personified the phrases “all sizzle, no steak” and/or “all flash and no dash.” Here are 25 of the most overrated and overhyped NBA Draft prospects of recent memory.
25. Christian Laettner: 1992, Pick #3
Still perhaps the greatest — and most hated — college basketball players in NCAA history, Christian Laettner was something of a “tag along” amongst the group of Hall of Fame NBA players that comprised the original 1992 Dream Team.
After a mostly forgettable 14-year career in the NBA of his own, Laettner partnered with former Duke University teammate Brian Davis to pursue several business ventures, including a failed attempt to buy the Memphis Grizzlies.
In 2015, ESPN’s 30 for 30 documentary series did an episode titled “I Hate Christian Laettner,” documenting how polarizing of a player he was while at Duke University.
24. Glenn Robinson: 1994, Pick #1
Leading up to the 1994 NBA Draft, Glenn “Big Dog” Robinson was so highly thought of that he was selected before future superstars (and virtual “can’t-miss” prospects) like Grant Hill and Jason Kidd.
While the former National college player of the year and consensus first-team All-American had a relatively respectable career in terms of “box score production,” his overall career success — and ability to transform his team — pales in comparison to some of the guys that were selected in the same draft class as him.
23. Joe Smith: 1995, Pick #1
Coming out of the University of Maryland, few would have believed Joe Smith would someday end up on this list. The 6-foot-10 forward was a two-time All-American for the Terrapins, and the Naismith College Player of the Year as a sophomore. He skipped his last two years of school, and was taken #1 overall in the 1995 NBA Draft by the Golden state Warriors.
After Smith expressed his desire to return to the east coast, the Warriors feared a situation similar to what they went through with Chris Webber (the player leaving town in free agency and getting nothing in return), Golden State traded Smith to the 76ers.
Over the next 13 seasons, Smith bounced around 12 different teams, never realizing his immense talent. To make matters worse, the next four players picked after Smith were multi-time All Stars: Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, and Kevin Garnett.
22. Michael Olowokandi: 1998, Pick #1
The Los Angeles Clippers used the #1 overall pick in the 1998 NBA Draft on center Michael Olowokandi, who was coming off a senior at the University of the Pacific in which he averaged 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game his senior year, and was the 1997–98 Big West Conference Player of the Year.
But in 500 regular season NBA games, Olowokandi averaged 8.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.39 blocked shots per game. His selection looks even more egregious when you consider that Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Rashard Lewis, and Mike Bibby were all taken in the same draft (after him).
21. Eddy Curry: 2001, Pick #3
The Chicago Bulls selected Eddy Curry with the third overall pick in the 2001 NBA Draft after being tantalized with the raw athleticism of the seven-foot-one big man. Unfortunately, the only thing Curry did with that NBA-ready fame is fill it up with as much food as possible, when he wasn’t doing stupid things off the court.
The Bulls traded Curry to the New York Knicks in 2005, and in 2008, head coach Mike D’Antoni basically called him out for being too fat to play in his rotation. He got so heavy that even after losing 30lbs, his personal trainer said it would be “delusional” for him to ever get down to 285lbs, which was the weight his coaches wanted him to play at. By 2012, Curry was out of the league.
20. Nikoloz Tskitishvili: 2002, Pick #5
The Nuggets rolled the dice with the number five pick in the 2002 draft, selecting Georgian (the country, not the state) prospect Nikoloz Tskitishvili, amidst the rush of NBA teams scouring Europe to find the next multi-skilled big man.
But “Skita” ended up being one of the biggest busts in recent memory.
He never even averaged four points a game, and he didn’t even play double digit minutes any year after his rookie season. Tskitishvili shot 30% for his career — not a typo — and was out of the league entirely in four years.
19. Darko Miličić: 2003, Pick #2
Darko Miličić is almost single-handedly responsible for killing the infatuation of NBA Teams with selecting raw-but-talented players from Europe. Taken one spot behind LeBron James, and ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade, Miličić spending most of his first three seasons on the bench, and in the dog house of head coach Larry Brown.
While Miličić blamed his lack of playing time as the biggest reason for his failure in the NBA, plenty of people around the team believed he was more interested in the NBA lifestyle, versus becoming an NBA star. Miličić bounced around five more teams in the NBA, before heading back to Europe.
18. Sebastian Telfair: 2004, Pick #13
Following in the footsteps of fellow Abraham Lincoln High School alumnus Stephon Marbury, Sebastian Telfair became a legend on the streets of Brooklyn, and eventually started to garner national notoriety as one of the best high school basketball prospects in the nation (if not the best one outright).
After turning down his commitment to the University of Louisville, “Bassy” Telfair went straight to the pro’s via the 2004 NBA Draft, where he was taken 13th overall by the Portland Trail Blazers. But despite playing in the NBA for 12 seasons, Telfair never averaged less than 10 points per game each season in the league, and started 30 or fewer games for one of the seven teams he played on in 10 of those 12 seasons.
17. Jameer Nelson: 2004, Pick #20
Jameer Nelson was the big man on St. Joseph’s University’s campus from the moment he got there, as he was unanimously named the National Freshman of the Year. After averaging nearly 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists per game as a junior, Nelson returned for his senior year, and led the St. Joseph’s to the Elite Eight.
The Orlando Magic selected Nelson with the 20th overall pick in the 2004 NBA Draft, and he’s remained in the NBA for the last fifteen seasons. He was famously a part of the 2008-2009 Magic team that went to the NBA Finals (and lost to the Los Angeles Lakers). In February of 2018, Nelson was traded to the Chicago Bulls, as part of a deal that sent Nikola Mirotić to the New Orleans Pelicans.
16. Marvin Williams: 2005, Pick #2
One of the original guys who came to college to fulfill their one year requirement before they headed to the NBA, Marvin Williams arrived in Chapel Hill in 2004, and helped the Tar Heels win the 2005 NCAA Championship, while being a unanimous selection to the All-ACC Freshman Team. Still, Williams’ college and subsequent NBA career was always marred by the “talent vs production” debate.
Standing 6’9 with the skills of a wing player, Williams has never really maximized all the gifts he was given by the basketball gods. To make matters worse, he’ll always be remembered as the guy whom the Atlanta Hawks took with the #2 overall pick of the 2005 NBA Draft, instead of point guard Chris Paul (for whom so many in Atlanta Hawks fans were clamoring, leading up to said draft).
15. Andrea Bargnani: 2006, Pick #1
Just moments after the Toronto Raptors selected the Italian-born Andrea Bargnani with the #1 overall pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, ESPN analyst Jay Bilas offered a rather harrowing assessment of Bargnani’s game: “he does not rebound, he does not post up, he is not physical; he needs to work on his body.”
In other words, Bargnani was a personification of what terrified so many NBA executives from taking players from Europe: he flashed the skill to be a difference-maker when playing on the perimeter, but his overall lack of physicality, and the fact that he was still so young (20 years old) and raw when drafted, made him a rather high-risk roll of the dice.
14. Adam Morrison: 2006, Pick #3
As bad as the drafting history of the Charlotte basketball organization (in its most recent iteration) has been, it’s hard to fault them for drafting Adam Morrison. The All-American was the co-national player of the year, and helped make Gonzaga University a college basketball powerhouse. But Morrison’s reasons for failure in the NBA were two-fold: for one, he simply lacked the pure athleticism needed to really be a star at the professional level; teams — like Charlotte — overlooked that fact, because of his production in college.
Then, Morrison tore his ACL in his second season, taking even more away from his already-limited athletic ability. While you can mock the fact that Morrison was taken ahead of Brandon Roy, Kyle Lowry, J.J. Redick, and Paul Millsap, none of them won a championship ring; meanwhile, Morrison has two of them, as a reserve player on the Los Angeles Lakers in 2009 and 2010
13. Jimmer Fredette: 2011, Pick #10
Playing for the usually unheralded Brigham Young University men’s basketball team, James Taft “Jimmer” Fredette led all NCAA Division I players in scoring during his senior season (2010-2011), en route to being named the 2011 National Player of the Year. Fredette helped the Cougars reach the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament that year, which was the first time in 30 years that they had made it that far.
Fredette left BYU holding 11 scoring records, which still stand today. Unfortunately, Fredette was never able to translate that scoring touch into the NBA game, as he’s now playing for the Shanghai Sharks in China, less than seven years after being drafted into the NBA.
12. Anthony Bennett: 2013, Pick #1
You could have a rousing debate as to whether Anthony Bennett wasn’t just the worst #1 overall pick since the turn of the century, but one of the worst in the history of the NBA Draft itself. Teams loved the fact that Bennett had a big, strong body at 6’7 and 240lbs, with the ability to out-muscle smaller defenders and “out-quick” larger defenders.
But there were a lot of NBA teams who didn’t even have Bennett ranked among their top five prospects in a rather weak 2013 NBA Draft class, and believe that Bennett was much more of a product of being the #1 pick by process of elimination, since most teams has significant questions about every other player taken among the top picks in that draft.
11. Trey Burke: 2013, Pick #9
Alfonso Clark “Trey” Burke III played for two years at the University of Michigan, and was constantly referred to as one of the best — if not the best — players in the nation during his sophomore year in college. In 2013, Burke became the first player to win the college basketball player of the year award and lead his team to the national championship since Ed O’Bannon in 1995.
But college basketball appeared to be the peak of Burke’s career, as he was one of those guys whose game simply couldn’t translate in the NBA. After being dumped by the Utah Jazz (who originally drafted him), Burke has had a couple of forgettable seasons as of late, with the Washington Wizards and New York Knicks.
10. Andrew Wiggins: 2014, Pick #1
Andrew Wiggins was the first pick of the draft in 2014, going ahead of Kansas teammate Joel Embiid, who is not exactly an NBA bust. Wiggins is a different kind of bust, considering he’s 23 years old and averaging 19 points a game over almost 400 NBA games and just finishing the first year of a five year $146 million contract. Normally you’d think that’s pretty good for a top pick, but Minnesota Timberwolves fans and basketball watchers in general beg to differ.
Wiggins hasn’t shown any real improvement in five seasons in the league, declining if anything, and he’s a sieve on defense with a lackadaisical motor and effort level. Wiggins has a career 103 offensive rating with an even worse 114 defensive rating. The 2014 draft looks pretty bad in hindsight, so Wiggins as the first pick is just about perfect.
9. Jabari Parker: 2014, Pick #2
The consensus National High School Player of the Year coming out of Chicago in 2013, Jabari Parker was part of Mike Krzyzewski’s early dalliances with one-and-done players. Parker became the fifth freshman in Duke history to score 20 points in his first game, and finished the year as a First-team All-ACC selection and the National Association of Basketball Coaches Rookie of the Year.
Milwaukee ended up taking Parker with the 2nd overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft (one pick ahead of Joel Embiid), and while they stayed patient through his two ACL injuries, they eventually let him walk via free agency after the 2017-2018 season.
8. Doug McDermott: 2014, Pick #11
While playing for Creighton University, Doug McDermott was a three-time consensus first-team All-American. He led the country in scoring in 2013–14, and was named the consensus national player of the year as a senior in 2014. He finished his college career with the fifth-most points in NCAA Division I men’s basketball history.
Unfortunately, Creighton was badly beaten in the Round of 32 in the 2014 NCAA tournament, which was one of the few blemishes on McDermott’s college basketball resume. After spending his first three-plus seasons in the NBA with the Chicago Bulls, McDermott has bounced around three NBA teams over the past two years, most recently joining the Dallas Mavericks.
7. Jahlil Okafor: 2015, Pick #3
The rap on Jahlil Okafor coming out of Duke University was that while he was a polished scoring savant around the hoop, for someone with his size (6’11 and 275lbs) and athleticism, he was breathtakingly clueless when it came to playing defense.
After being drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers with the 3rd overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, Okafor saw his minutes per game go from 30 to 22.7 to 12.6 in his first three years in the league, and the 76ers eventually traded him to Brooklyn less than three years after taking him.
Ironically, the two players taken before and after Okafor — D’Angelo Russell and Kristaps Porzingis — have been selected as All-Stars, while Okafor hasn’t been anything close to one.
6. Emmanuel Mudiay: 2015, Pick #7
For much of the 2014-2015 NBA season, people thought that the worst teams in the league would “tank” to put themselves in better position to draft point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. But his erratic skillset and lack of overall focus, which scared off teams in the 2015 NBA Draft, began to further manifest when he arrived in the NBA.
He had an unspectacular career in Denver as a member of the Nuggets, before being traded to the New York Knicks. As the saying goes: hindsight is 20/20, but Denver could’ve really benefited from a young point guard like Terry Rozier, instead of what they got (or didn’t get) from Mudiay.
5. Justise Winslow: 2015, Pick #10
How highly did the Miami Heat think of swingman Justise Winslow from Duke University? They reportedly turned down a package comprising SIX draft picks, including four first round picks, from the Boston Celtics, and were thrilled to draft Winslow instead.
But after the Heat thought they got the steal of the draft in Winslow, he’s developed at a slower-than-molasses pace, when he’s not spending time away from the court due to injury. In three seasons in Miami, Winslow has averaged under 11 points per game, despite averaging almost 35 minutes of playing time per game in his second season.
4. Thon Maker: 2016, Pick #10
To borrow a line from the movie “Mean Girls” Thon Maker is the “fetch” of NBA prospects — people need to stop trying to make it happen. Once upon a time, Maker was supposed to be a freak show prospect with unlimited upside. That upside tantalized the Milwaukee Bucks to pick Maker with the 10th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
But two seasons later, Maker still runs around the court like he has no idea what he’s doing. Coupled with the controversy around the idea that he’s actually much older than his birth certificate would indicate, and it’s not going so well for Maker to date.
3. Markelle Fultz: 2017, Pick #1
As ESPN’s Zach Lowe quipped: some day, somebody is going to write a book about the tragedy that was the start of Markelle Fultz’ star-crossed NBA career. He was considered a no-brainer, no-way-you-should-think-twice lock to be the #1 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, and the league took notice when the Philadelphia 76ers traded up for the #1 pick, seemingly to pair Fultz with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
But after one of the most mysterious shoulder injuries in the history of professional athletics completely robbed Fultz of his ability (and his confidence) in shooting the basketball, his presence became an ugly blemish on the rising 76ers. To add insult to injury: Boston further fleeced Philadelphia in the deal for this pick, walking out of the same draft with star-in-the-making Jayson Tatum.
2. Dennis Smith Jr.: 2017, Pick #9
A 6-2 bulldog who could jump out of the gym, blow by defenders, and play like a one-man offensive dynamo, Dennis Smith Jr. from North Carolina State seemed like a tantalizing prospect.
That is, of course, until you realized that he was one of those guys who coasted by on his god-given athletic gifts, and left major questions about his attitude, focus, and work ethic at every stop he made.
But that didn’t stop the Dallas Mavericks from drafting Smith in the 2017 NBA Draft, and then trading him away less than two years later, probably realizing his destiny is something close to “Steve Francis 2.0.”
1. Malik Monk: 2017, Pick #11
When the Charlotte Hornets took Malik Monk with the 11th overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, everyone immediately declared the Hornets got one of the biggest steals in the draft; nevermind that Monk looked like someone told him his dog had cancer, as he was totally devastated when the New York Knicks passed on him.
Monk seemingly hasn’t recovered from that devastation, considering that in the first 130+ games of his NBA career, he hasn’t registered a single start, and averages less than 8.5 points per game. The fact that Charlotte was another one of the teams that passed over taking Donovan Mitchell can’t be reiterated enough times, given how bad it looks in hindsight.